Employers should brace themselves for new swine flu attack

The National Health Service is preparing for a return of swine flu this winter and has warned that the pandemic could infect as many as 18m people in the UK - up to 30 per cent of the population - in a worst case scenario currently circulating among regional health trusts.

If Government fears are realised, the impact for employers will be profound with staff absences of up to 12 per cent of the working population. Such heavy absences would have a serious effect on the economy.

Modest recent increases in reported cases and in demand for the flu drug Tamiflu suggest that the UK could already be two weeks in to a second pandemic. If so, within the next week or so the number of reported cases is likely to show a steep rise well beyond the peaks experienced in the summer months.

One worry is that the rise in cases could overtake efforts to introduce a vaccination programme. The first vaccine, GSK, will be available from the end of October but it will take several months to deliver the full programme.

If the pattern of a winter outbreak follows that of the summer, cases will be concentrated among the youngest and healthiest parts of the population. Older people are thought to have built up partial immunity to the virus through previous flu exposure.

The second wave of the virus is expected to last for 15 weeks and to reach ten times the number of people affected in the first wave.