Vendee fight to the finish

While first and second places are settled in the Vendee Globe after Armel Le Cleac'h finished at the weekend, yet another dramatic change of fortune means that Sam Davies, the highest British entrant has a chance of snatching third place.

Her nearest rival Marc Guillemot on Safran has lost his keel, a similar failure to that suffered a week earlier by Roland Jourdain. With less than 1,000 miles to the finish, Guillemot is sailing on under three reefs. Although he is now in fourth place on the water he has a cushion of more than two days in redress after standing by while the injured Yann Elies was rescued in December.

That may be just enough to stay ahead of Davies on Roxy, but he cannot afford to take too many risks while Davies may be emboldened by the chance to effectively leapfrog two places as third place is to be shared jointly with Vincent Riou, already granted his position through redress. She and her shore crew will have been doing their sums. At present she is expected to finish later this week. Now she has everything to sail for.

Fifth place would be a marvellous result for Davies in a boat that is much older than the newer designs of those sailed by Brian Thompson and Dee Caffari in her wake. Third place would be remarkable. Meanwhile Caffari knows she has a fighting chance of overtaking Thompson's Bahrain Team Pindar which is unable to sail under full power due to problems with the hydraulic rams that operate its canting keel.

There is every chance now the only two women to have entered the race will be the highest placed British competitors - another shot in the arm for women's sailing in the UK.

Winners and losers

As Michel Desjoyeaux begins to savour his Vendee triumph it might be an idea to assess the fortunes of other competitors as a race like this has many winners and losers when you look at its impact on their careers. For some it will not be evident yet since some changes will only occur in time. But here is my assessment of twenty of them. The rest either retired early or simply didn't register enough as racers:

Michel Desjoyeaux: an obvious winner, his reputation is enhanced and his future can only be defined by his remaining ambition.

Sam Davies: Another big winner, came to public attention in the UK, and popular with race followers, should help her get a a state of the art boat if she chooses to do the race next time.

Jonny Malbon: Failed to enhance his reputation and will leave a question mark for sponsors. Will Artemis stay with him in the long term? On the other hand he has built a good relationship with his sponsor who knows that his boat probably needed longer to establish itself.

Brian Thompson: Looked after his boat and enhanced his reputation as a reliable sailor. But does he have the potential to challenge the fastest French skippers in the long run?

Alex Thompson: Can he shake off the reputation of a "crash and burn" sailor? He needs to finish more often. While he came second in the Barcelona round the world race he was sailing with the immensely experienced Andrew Cape.

Mike Golding: Has nothing left to prove as a round the world sailor, but does he believe that? He knows what it is to be beaten by a Frenchman. Has it happened once too often? Sponsorship assured so he can go on as long as he feels.

Roland Jourdain: his already excellent reputation has not suffered, could easily have won and would have liked to have pushed Desjoyeaux harder in the later stages had he not suffered keel damage. Should be back next time.

Jean Le Cam: Will want to return one more time because he knows he can win it.

Yann Elies: Still young, will have learned a lot, will almost certainly want to come back. His retirement was cruel bad luck.

Marc Guillemot: A fine seaman, again with nothing to prove. A top five spot looks to be his. Again he may question whether he wants to come back in four years' time.

Loick Peyron: Knows he can win this race, still young enough, so I'm sure he'll be up for another go. Sponsors know they will get value for money.

Jean-Baptiste Dejeanty: Has youth on his side but needs to improve to keep his sponsors happy (and possibly to keep his sponsors).

Vincent Riou: A past winner, would have chased Desjoyeaux all the way to the line had he not damaged his boat going to the aid of Jean Le Cam. His reputation is secure and he will be back.

Steve White: Steve who? Some may have asked this before the race but not any more. He gambled everything on this race, scrambling together his entry at the last minute. If White set out on a wing and prayer that prayer must surely be answered with some solid sponsorship in future. He deserves it.

Dee Caffari: In spite of her previous circumnavigation she was one the least experienced skippers in the race at this level of competition but has done herself a lot of good, preserving her boat so far (if not her mainsail). Her sponsors should be happy.

Dominique Wavre: He was 53 when he set out. A fine sailor who acquitted himself well before his retirement, but will he want to return in four years time?

Sebastien Josse: Probably pushed too hard but will have learned much and should be back with confident sponsors. Could win this race next time.

Armel Le Cléac´h: This is a great result for Le Cleac'h who may yet secure second place in his first Vendee. In showing he can race fast and preserve his boat, he has to be a hot tip for the future.

Raphael Dinelli: Simply doesn't have the pace to win. Is it enough any more just to take part?

Bernard Stamm: Did enough to confirm his reputation as a solid performer. Will probably want and should get the sponsorship for another crack at the race.

Jonah talk

Surely nothing can stop Michel Desjoyeaux now from claiming victory in the Vendee Globe? Well one or two things could - a collision with a whale or some other debris could take off his keel and capsize the boat although no heavy winds are forecast for his final few miles. Certainly it would need something of such catastrophic proportions to stop him now, and that looks unlikely.

Sadly it is second placed Roland Jourdain, now more than a thousand miles behind him, who is sailing gingerly just now after losing the bulb of his keel due, he thinks, to damage caused near the tip of South America when he collided with a sea mammal, most probably a whale.

If the weather forecasts look kind enough for Cape Finisterre and Biscay I think he will probably try to complete his circumnavigation. By the time he reaches the Azores he will have had time to assess the handling qualities of the boat in order to make a judgement about its seaworthiness.

As Desjoyeaux sails in to a rapturous French welcome on Sunday, spare a thought for Raphael Dinelli and Norbert Sedlacek who will be setting their boats to round Cape Horn. One of Dinelli's biggest worries just now is whether his supplies will last another three weeks. By the time they sale in to port, the crowds will have thinned somewhat but I'm sure the people of Les Sables d'Olonne will be there to greet them. The French respect their sailors.

Between first and last, however, we might see some jostling for position around fifth and sixth place. Jourdain will almost certainly lose his second place to Armel Le Cleac'h, so that would put him joint third with the already placed Vincent Rou (as a result of redress given earlier in the race).

More than a thousand miles behind Le Cleac'h is Sam Davies. She is about 300 miles ahead of Marc Guillemot but needs a much bigger margin (about 600 miles) since he was given redress for going to the aid of Yann Elies.

About 350 miles behind Davies is Brian Thompson on the powerful Bahrain Team Pindar. And only 90 miles behind Thompson is Dee Caffari. The question is whether Thompson will pull all the stops out to try and overhaul Davies.

He would dearly love to be the first Briton back but the challenge may be beyond him. There were some high expectations placed on his Juan Kouyoumdjian-designed boat before the race. It's the most powerful boat in the fleet with the biggest righting moment. But it is by no means nimble to manouevre for a loan yachtsman.

I was speaking with Juan K yesterday and he pointed out that the boat had been designed for crewed sailing. Many of Brian's posts have outlined difficulties he has experienced with various parts of the boat, such as the longitudinals, the alternator and the the big D3 sail that was damaged beyond repair at sea.

"All these repairs mean that I cannot be quite as on top of the sailing as I would like and I consequently end up reacting to events rather than anticipating them and taking best advantage of them," he said in one of his posts.

On the other hand, as Juan K pointed out, all the skippers have faced technical problems. Dee Caffari looked to be losing her deteriorating mainsail at one stage until drastic repairs contained the problem for a while (although the damage has revealed itself once more).

I've written a feature on the race for Saturday's Financial Times - a bit of a round up plus some discussion about boat design, given the high rates of equipment failure during the race.

For now, though, the race is still on. Thompson's big boat could be set up well for his 3,000 mile run to the finish. Could it be time to make a charge?

Podium result for Riou

To anyone who is not a sailor and to some who are, the news that a podium position in the Vendee Globe is already decided with 5,000 miles still to go for the leaders may come as a surprise, but such are the workings of competition juries.

The award of joint third place to Vincent Riou and PRB is some small consolation for the damage his boat received when rescuing Jean le Cam not far from Cape Horn. The award is the outcome of the jury's decision to grant Riou redress as a result of the incident.

It is important that redress is accepted in such circumstances since Riou put himself and his boat at considerable risk in going to the aid of his fellow yachtsman. Le Cam and every other competitor would have done the same.

I wonder what the organisers would have done had the incident involved the two leading boats? The same? Quite possibly but it would have produced an unsatisfactory outcome for a race to be decided so far from the finish.

The remaining competitors, however, seem determined that the finish will be decided on the water. With a lead of nearly 300 miles over his nearest rival, Michel Desjoyeaux appears to be sailing well within himself. It is not impossible that he could be caught by either Roland Jourdain or Armel le Cleac'h but the best hopes of the following boats must rest with the leader suffering some kind of damage.

As we have seen with so many retirements and breakages in this race, that remains a possibility. I cannot think of a boat that has had a glitch free race although Sam Davies on Roxy seems to have protected her boat well. Brian Thompson and Roland Jourdain have both been undertaking running structural repairs while Dee Caffari has been struggling to patch a delaminating mainsail. Marc Guillemot too, must find an opportunity to free a sticking mainsail.

The redress for Riou puts Sam Davies effectively in sixth place just now as the redress awarded to Guillemot for going to the aid of Yann Elies would put him ahead of her, although not by a substantial distance. Davies is a thousand miles behind le Cleac'h so he would take some catching at this stage of the race.

Of course, with such a distance to go, it is still very possible that the positions could change yet. It would only take a fierce Biscay storm at the wrong time to put the kibosh on all those hard earned miles. But all the boats left in the race now are looking for a finish.

Still tight in the Vendee

There's no denying it - I have become addicted to the Vendee Globe and can't get through the day without my morning and evening "fix," looking at the positions. It's good to move close in on the tracker (link in sidebar) to see the relative positions of the boats.

The leading boats are too spread from east to west now for front runner, Loik Peyron, to shadow each of the following pack and there is no doubt the pack is closing up. At 62 miles out from the lead, Mike Golding is gradually closing the gap, as are the others. Sebastien Josse is just 17 miles off the lead this morning and Armel Le Cleac'h is charging in fourth place.

The speeds are climbing but the competition is so intense that not one of this leading group can afford a mistake. All the boats are well west of the rhumb line (in this case the line representing the shortest distance of the course). This is because they want to avoid the light winds associated with a high pressure weather system that sits over St Helena (The so-called St Helena High).

But at some stage they will have to increase their easting as they approach the Cape of Good Hope. The skippers face a constant speed-against-distance judgement. Golding has moved out west in search of speed, a tactic that has rewarded him well although all the leading boats are recording good speeds just now.

Meanwhile Brian Thompson has dropped 244 miles behind the leading boat while Marc Guillemot has moved within 200 miles. It's important that Thompson stays focused, as Golding is, on the leading boat and no other.

Of course sustaining high speeds over long distances means that some boats will fail at some point. Jérémie Beyou is the latest retirement. He won't be the last.