To push, or not to push?

It must be pretty miserable for Mike Golding and the other retirees stuck in the southern ocean more than a thousand miles from land. The little white triangles that represent the boats on the web-based tracker board look quite forlorn.

For Loick Peyron and Golding, sailing under jury rigs, the reality is that they will be unlikely to make landfall before Christmas. Jean-Baptiste Dejeanty is also making his way to his nearest port after retiring through a combination of problems.

I don't think Golding can blame himself for the dismasting. He's one of the most experienced sailors out there. The reality is that to give yourself a chance of getting ahead and staying ahead in this race, you have to push your boat, such is the fierceness of the competition.

But Golding says he wasn't pushing particularly hard when the squall hit, it was simply that his sails were set for a lighter wind and could not cope with the swift rush of wind that gave him no time to respond.

What he needed and what the winner will need, is some luck. But squalls are a part of racing, as are collisions with growlers (ice) and cetations. The skippers just have to cross their fingers and hope they're not going to draw the short straws.

This is not the first time that Golding has been forced out through damage to his boat. He twice had the lead in the 2004 Vendee, only to be forced out by halyard breakages.

Right now he'll be preoccupied with putting together a reasonable jury rig, but when he has time for reflection during the slow journey to Australia, I'm sure Mike will go over his decisions a thousand times, wondering if he should have set a more cautious sail pattern. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

The dismastings of Peyron and Golding, both vastly experienced skippers, plus the damage to Jean-Pierre Dick's boat, should inject some caution in to the fleet. At the very least the front runners now should be doing some long, hard thinking. With at least 4,000 miles of southern ocean yet to cover, the canniest of them might think about reigning back a little. But human nature doesn't work like that when there's a boat gaining on you fast a few miles astern. There's a temptation, also, to try and get a jump on the leading pack.

But if they do continue to nudge the 20 kt mark in confused seas we shall yet see more retirements. So far, the damage has been to steering, keels, mast and riggings. The nagging fear is that sooner or later a breakage may prove life-threatening. It is an ever-present danger.

It will be interesting to watch Michel Desjoyeaux in the next week. We know, from his earlier performance in the race, he has the out-and-out speed to sail faster than any other competitor. But he knows that out-and-out speed carries a risk, particularly in heavy weather. The sensible approach might be to sprint in the best conditions and reign back conservatively when the heaviest depressions pass over. Sebastien Josse seems to playing the risks well. I note he had three reefs in his mainsail during the worst of the most recent storm.

Ultimately, the success of these skippers will be measured over 24,000 miles and they have yet to cover half that distance. Those trailing doggedly behind the leading pack should take heart. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Sam Davies in a top five position at the end of the race. Anyone who can manage that, from 30 starters, deserves to take a bow.