Swine flu - it could be getting a whole lot worse
In one of my other blogs this week I've written a story which in my days as a daily newspaper reporter would have been described as a scoop. It's well sourced, not hearsay and it's the kind of story that could make a front page headline on a national newspaper. But there's a sensitivity to the story because it involves swine flu.
The sensitivity probably explains why the warning of a second pandemic has not been press released yet since the National Health Service is terrified of creating panic particularly among the parents of young children.
Fears of a second swine flu pandemic this winter are not new. What is new, however, are the indications that we could already be two weeks in to this second wave and that the NHS is treating a winter swine flu attack as a serious threat to employers. What is also revealing is that the NHS has created a model - it's worst case scenario - that envisages the virus spreading among 30 per cent of the UK's population. That is 18m people.
Unless the virus grows more virulent the vast majority of those who fall down with swine flu are likely to experience the usual kind of flu bout - unpleasant but endurable. The worst cases, as we now know, are being experienced among the young who have had no exposure to previous pandemic strains.
The inescapable conclusion of this experience is that there will be deaths from a second wave of swine flu and some of those will be young children. If the second pandemic affects 10 times more people than the last one, it follows that we might expect to see the number of deaths multiplied by the same factor.
Should parents panic? No they should not. They should be concerned and take precautions, such as insisting on good habits in hygiene such as a frequent washing of hands. But they should also retain a sense of proportion over this virus. Every year in the UK there are 3,000 to 4,000 deaths a year (sometimes as many as 20,000 in a bad year) from what is termed "seasonal flu." Those figures, however, will do little to appease the parents of a swine flu victim. If the projections are correct, there will be victims and the cases will be reported in the press.
While each individual death is a tragedy, it is the same whatever the cause and every year thousands of people die from a series health problems - cancers, heart defects and other conditions.
One reason I chose to place this story initially in a blog aimed at the management community is that the effects of a much bigger pandemic are likely to be felt most severely economically since the estimates suggest it could literally decimate the working population. More than decimate in fact, because the worst case senario points to 12 per cent workplace absences.
If any companies are planning substantial redundancy programmes they would be wise to hold off until the full scale of the next wave is known. If the wave is as strong as it might be we should know very soon as the number of reported cases and demand for the Tamiflu treatment will increase exponentially.
There is a fine line between running a "scare story" and providing balanced information. My own view is if the health service is concerned enough to distribute its fears among practitioners it should be doing so among the rest of us.
One big problem is that if the pandemic really does take off this month it could outstrip the speed at which the licensed vaccine, GSK, is being prepared. Supplies will not be available until the end of the month and delivering the vaccination programme could take several months. That is time that we simply might not have.
So is swine flu a killer flu? Yes, for a small, vulnerable minority. Is it going to get worse? The health service thinks that this is a distinct possibility. When could this be happening? It may be happening as you read this. Should we be worried? Of course we should. Each of us should take what we think are the most sensible precautions and hope for the best. Short of migrating to a remote island there is no escaping this thing. Personally I will carry on exactly as before.
The sensitivity probably explains why the warning of a second pandemic has not been press released yet since the National Health Service is terrified of creating panic particularly among the parents of young children.
Fears of a second swine flu pandemic this winter are not new. What is new, however, are the indications that we could already be two weeks in to this second wave and that the NHS is treating a winter swine flu attack as a serious threat to employers. What is also revealing is that the NHS has created a model - it's worst case scenario - that envisages the virus spreading among 30 per cent of the UK's population. That is 18m people.
Unless the virus grows more virulent the vast majority of those who fall down with swine flu are likely to experience the usual kind of flu bout - unpleasant but endurable. The worst cases, as we now know, are being experienced among the young who have had no exposure to previous pandemic strains.
The inescapable conclusion of this experience is that there will be deaths from a second wave of swine flu and some of those will be young children. If the second pandemic affects 10 times more people than the last one, it follows that we might expect to see the number of deaths multiplied by the same factor.
Should parents panic? No they should not. They should be concerned and take precautions, such as insisting on good habits in hygiene such as a frequent washing of hands. But they should also retain a sense of proportion over this virus. Every year in the UK there are 3,000 to 4,000 deaths a year (sometimes as many as 20,000 in a bad year) from what is termed "seasonal flu." Those figures, however, will do little to appease the parents of a swine flu victim. If the projections are correct, there will be victims and the cases will be reported in the press.
While each individual death is a tragedy, it is the same whatever the cause and every year thousands of people die from a series health problems - cancers, heart defects and other conditions.
One reason I chose to place this story initially in a blog aimed at the management community is that the effects of a much bigger pandemic are likely to be felt most severely economically since the estimates suggest it could literally decimate the working population. More than decimate in fact, because the worst case senario points to 12 per cent workplace absences.
If any companies are planning substantial redundancy programmes they would be wise to hold off until the full scale of the next wave is known. If the wave is as strong as it might be we should know very soon as the number of reported cases and demand for the Tamiflu treatment will increase exponentially.
There is a fine line between running a "scare story" and providing balanced information. My own view is if the health service is concerned enough to distribute its fears among practitioners it should be doing so among the rest of us.
One big problem is that if the pandemic really does take off this month it could outstrip the speed at which the licensed vaccine, GSK, is being prepared. Supplies will not be available until the end of the month and delivering the vaccination programme could take several months. That is time that we simply might not have.
So is swine flu a killer flu? Yes, for a small, vulnerable minority. Is it going to get worse? The health service thinks that this is a distinct possibility. When could this be happening? It may be happening as you read this. Should we be worried? Of course we should. Each of us should take what we think are the most sensible precautions and hope for the best. Short of migrating to a remote island there is no escaping this thing. Personally I will carry on exactly as before.
Labels: National Health Service, swine flu
posted by Richard Donkin at
8:58 AM
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